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Coupling from the past
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Coupling from the past : ウィキペディア英語版
Coupling from the past
Among Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, coupling from the past is a method for sampling from the stationary distribution of a Markov chain. Contrary to many MCMC algorithms, coupling from the past gives in principle a perfect sample from the stationary distribution. It was invented by James Propp and David Wilson in 1996.
==The basic idea==
Consider a finite state irreducible aperiodic Markov chain M with state space S and (unique) stationary distribution \pi (\pi is a probability vector). Suppose that we come up with a probability distribution \mu on the set of maps f:S\to S with the property that for every fixed s\in S, its image f(s) is distributed according to the transition probability of M from state s. An example of such a probability distribution is the one where f(s) is independent from f(s') whenever s\ne s', but it is often worthwhile to consider other distributions. Now let f_j for j\in\mathbb Z be independent samples from \mu.
Suppose that x is chosen randomly according to \pi and is independent from the sequence f_j. (We do not worry for now where this x is coming from.) Then f_(x) is also distributed according to \pi, because \pi is M-stationary and our assumption on the law of f. Define
:F_j:= f_\circ f_\circ\cdots\circ f_.
Then it follows by induction that F_j(x) is also distributed according to \pi for every j\in\mathbb N. Now here is the main point. It may happen that for some n\in\mathbb N the image of the map F_n is a single element of S.
In other words, F_n(x)=F_n(y) for each y\in S. Therefore, we do not need to have access to x in order to compute F_n(x). The algorithm then involves finding some n\in \mathbb N such that F_n(S) is a singleton, and outputing the element of that singleton. The design of a good distribution \mu for which the task of finding such an n and computing F_n is not too costly is not always obvious, but has been accomplished successfully in several important instances.

抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)
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